Britain can expect to see annual migration of over a quarter of a million for the next twenty years – roughly the present population of Southampton every year
June 13, 2016
If the UK remains in the EU, net migration will continue to be very high, at over a quarter of a million a year for at least 20 years, with a massive impact on our population. That is the conclusion of a report released today by Migration Watch UK.
A central, but cautious estimate, for total net migration suggests that it could run at 265,000 in 2035. 60% of the net foreign inflow would come from the EU.
The paper looks ahead over a twenty year period in the event that the UK votes to remain in the EU in the referendum on 23rd June. It points to continued very high levels of net migration. It notes that there is widespread complacency and denial about both the likelihood and the impact of rapid population growth.
Under the low migration scenario, net migration from the EU falls to 135,000 by the end of the period and only a small number of refugees who have already arrived in other parts of the EU relocate to Britain. The government successfully reduces non-EU net migration to 100,000 a year. British emigration remains at 50,000 a year, giving total net migration under this scenario of 205,000 (see Annex A).
Under the high scenario, net migration from the EU rises to 220,000 by 2031. In this scenario, attempts to reduce non-EU migration have failed so it is running at 150,000 per year. British emigration (50,000 net per year) brings total net migration to the UK to 320,000 in 20 years time (see Annex B).
The central estimate represents a cautious approach. It excludes Turkey altogether and takes the average of the high and low migration scenarios. This would see net migration running at 265,000 by 2035 (See Annex D). Net migration at this level is the current ‘high migration’ scenario used by the ONS in the population projections and would take the UK population to 70 million in 2024 and 80 million within thirty years (see Annex E).
Population growth on such a scale would generate serious competition for scarce resources, overcrowding of roads and transport systems, loss of amenity and green fields and a housing crisis far more serious than anything we experience today, not to speak of the challenge of integration.
In all of these scenarios, it is assumed that Turkey does not join the European Union, although this is clearly a major risk. If Turkey were to join the EU in 2024, net migration could be as high as 420,000 a year by 2035, with potentially 100,000 Turks arriving each year after transitional controls ended, say, in 2031 (see Annex C). Under these circumstances the UK population would rise to over 76 million in 2035 and 80 million in 2039.
Looking still further ahead it is hard to see how these numbers might come down until the level of East European economies becomes much closer to our own and until the problems that the Eurozone is now facing are overcome. Alternatively a serious economic downturn in the UK would reduce the attraction of our labour market.
Commenting, Lord Green of Deddington, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said:
This report is a final wake up call. Even leaving aside the prospect of Turkey joining the EU, it shows that net migration could still be running at 265,000 a year in 20 years time. This would bring our population to 80 million within 30 years. If we remain in the EU there will be nothing to stop a continuing rapid increase in our population. This would change our country for ever against the express wishes of a very large majority of our fellow citizens.
Migration Watch UK has a long track record in successfully estimating net migration to the UK.
- In 2002 Migration Watch UK estimated that net immigration would run at about 2 million per decade including an estimate for illegal immigration. Between 2003 and 2012 legal net migration was estimated to be 2.3 million.
- In 2003 Migration Watch UK described the Home Office estimates of between 8,000 and 13,000 immigrants per year from the A8 as ‘almost worthless’. An estimate of 40,000 per year was suggested as more realistic. In the ten years following Accession A8 migration was recorded by the ONS as averaging 46,000 a year although the 2011 Census identified a significant undercount, bringing the total average rate of A8 migration to 75,000 a year.
- In 2013 Migration Watch UK estimated that immigration from Romania and Bulgaria would add 50,000 a year to the UK population. In the year ending December 2015, Romanian and Bulgarian net migration was recorded in the IPS as 58,000.
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I have been out leafleting with other Brexit people (of various parties and none) for the past six weeks. During that time I have noticed a sea-change. Initially there was not a great deal of interest from the public in either camp, but as the weeks have passed not only has the general level of interest increased but support for “Leave” well outstrips that for “Remain”. The problem is of course postal votes – its not who votes that counts but who counts the votes.
You hit the nail right on the head there.The amount of vote rigging in this Country would make Mugabe blush ! I have no dought even as we speak they have teams armed with pencils and erasers at the ready . Remember to use social media and encourage voters to take a marker or Biro with them on the night.I have used facebook to warn voters.
A good piece of advice there! On every occasion I have voted in my local village hall since I got the right to vote they have had pencils to use and very lightly-coloured ones at that so my votes could be changed easily without arousing much suspicion. The last time I voted in May we got a DECENT pencil at long last that was able to make a very heavy cross on the ballot paper. I have a feeling I will be seeing the previous lightly-coloured pencil next Thursday!
Can you contact voters in Gibraltar? They are voting in this referendum and if the polls are to be believed then this vote could go right down to the wire. We may even have a referendum result closer than Quebec’s secession referendum in 1995 which resulted in Quebec deciding to stay with the rest of Canada by less than 1.5% which looks as if it was the closest constitutional referendum result in world history. The one poll held in Gibraltar by the local newspaper indicates the vote there will be very heavily for remain. I wouldn’t put it past this government to get the vote in Gibraltar rigged so that it can turn a UK-WIDE Brexit vote into a very narrow win for the remain side: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_ United_Kingdom_EU_membershp_referendum
Indeed. I have no faith the British government won’t try and fix the result so that this country stays in the EU. Yes, they will do this by fiddling the postal votes if the result is not an emphatic vote for leaving which is very unlikely just like the recent Austrian presidential election had the so-called ‘far right’ candidate (in reality a moderate ‘Right-winger’) in the lead until the crucial postal votes were countered. Labour had a lot of foresight in giving people the right to vote on demand back in 2003 just so they could prevent BNP local council election victories through low turnouts caused by their own lazy voters not turning-up. A postal voting scam FULLY SUPPORTED AND VOTED THROUGH THE HOUSE OF COMMONS BY THE SO-CALLED ‘LEADER’ OF THE ‘OPPOSITION’ AT THAT TIME MICHAEL HOWARD OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY!
Yes, the famous Joe Stalin quote of “the people who casts the vote don’t decide an election the people who count the votes do” is definitely at the forefront of this Tory government’s mind for next Thursday! If it this close: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXY7BMRmyxo and the indications from the polls is that it could be then the government can overturn a vote for leaving into one for staying-in.
The British government strongly believes this country’s national interest is to stay a part of the EU. One of the reasons we have the security service of MI6 is to defend this country from threats to its national interests and their agents work around the clock to combat threats to these interests. Does anyone seriously believe that MI6 won’t try and derail the vote Leave campaign or if push comes to shove try and ensure the vote next Thursday results in a vote to stay-in? Lord Tebbit has been around in politics for decades and once said he thought MI6 had quite a few agents inside UKIP. This vote will be fiddled and the opinion polls are being manipulated to show a decent lead for the vote leave campaign so that the narrow result next week in favour of staying-in just looks like the usual ‘swing back’ to the status quo as referendums normally produce.
( Party Official ) Having been a counting agent at many counts , I can tell you that these people vary considerably in their attitude , on the night. ONLY use the pencil provided and do NOT GIVE THEM THE EXCUSE !
I can see what you are saying but in my local polling station it is normally dark (even in the daytime) and they normally only give you a pretty pathetic pencil to use which is very lightly-coloured and not ‘heavy’ in its marking ability so my vote could be very easily rubbed out and changed to a vote for staying-in. As I said in my previous reply, in May at the local elections we had DECENT pencils for the first time so I am hoping we will get the same but I am certainly NOT confident for this very important vote we will. Does anyone here seriously believe the British government won’t try their hardest to rig the vote so we very narrowly stay-in (ie by less than 3% or so)? I’m afraid I have NO FAITH at all in the integrity of the British government! We definitely need international observers to be present at this count!
( Party Official ) All over Britain , People starved of GENUINE DEMOCRACY , due to living under an over priced CARTEL , with HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT and rapidly FALLING STANDARDS OF LIVING , FOR THOSE WORKING , have had ENOUGH ! VOTE LEAVE ON THURSDAY AND JOIN THE BRITISH DEMOCRATIC PARTY TODAY !