It seems only yesterday that various top Tories were trying to convince us that Britain is well on the way to economic recovery, unfortunately the latest performance statistics paint a very different picture.
According to ONS figures UK manufacturing output in January fell by a significant 1.5% compared to December, much worse than originally thought. As a consequence of this morning’s news it is further reported that the pound has fallen, yet again, against both the dollar and euro.
Many economists fear that far from coming out of recession that Britain is on the verge of plunging ever deeper into one.
The ONS (Office for National Statistics) claims that the goods deficit was in excess of £8bn (as it was in December).
However there was a glint of good news for Chancellor George Osborne in that the goods trade deficit with non-EU countries narrowed to a little over £3bn from a little over £4bn the month before. When you are clutching at economic straws any such news, however relatively trivial, is welcome.
Although the trade deficit figures were at their lowest since last July, statistics reveal that total exports in goods decreased by £900m.
In response the British Chambers of Commerce said more could be done to boost overseas trade.
Meanwhile a leading economist has warned: “More effective action is needed to ensure that the considerable untapped potential of many British exporters can be used to drive a sustainable recovery.”
“The government must implement the measures it has already announced to support companies seeking to break into new markets.
“We clearly need a national export strategy that focuses on key areas such as trade finance, promotion, and insurance, and would enable British companies to compete in the global arena.”
That the manufacturing output figures were far weaker than expected will not be welcome by Osborne coming, as they do, just a week before he announces his latest Budget.
It should also be recalled that it was only last month that ratings agency Moody’s cut the UK’s prestigious AAA credit rating, this hit the pound, and the value of sterling has continued to edge down ever since.
Meanwhile a broader economic view, quantified as industrial output, also saw a fall of 1.2% in January. This was partly due to a reduction in North Sea oil production, as well as falloffs in both mining and quarrying output.
Experts claim that the latest figures can be regarded as a negative indicator for the wider economy. One commented that the manufacturing data: “is the penultimate nail in the coffin in terms of triple-dip – it’s pretty much game over now – unless we have a stellar performance from the services sector, we’re almost certainly in a triple dip.”
Not quite what Cameron and his Tory chums would have us believe we suspect.
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It should be clear to anyone with even half a brain that the UK/EU is on the brink of a major economic disaster. Like a pack of dominoes falling it will only take one (Italy, Spain, France?) to start them in motive.