Do we really need HS2?

By Mike Newland.  

 

Our Victorian ancestors bequeathed us a sturdy spine of railway lines running the entire length of England and Scotland from north to south.

But the population is now far larger and the need to travel quickly is of far greater importance. Our ancestors’ legacy to us has become inadequate for our needs. The lines north from London are becoming jammed with passengers. More capacity is required and a return to the daring and imagination which inspired the Victorians.

Also of great national economic importance is the obvious division between the successful south and the north which is not flourishing in the same way. New transport links will help to encourage economic development in the more northerly parts of the country.

The first major step is to build a new high speed line from London to Birmingham – then on to Manchester and Leeds. A premium service cutting the existing travel time considerably and of great advantage to business. The Tory government is determined to forge ahead with this far-sighted investment in our future. Goodness, without this sort of thinking we’d still be taking five-and-a-half hours to reach Birmingham as in 1838 when Robert Stephenson’s line opened! The new line will cut a full 32 minutes off the existing journey time of an hour and twenty minutes.

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has explained that the country’s future is at risk without this vital project.

The above is the story told about the HS2 project. But how much of it is true? Do we really need a new line estimates of the cost of which started at around £30 billion and which are now officially said to be around £40 billion by the time it‘s finished in 2030 something.

The Government is trying to block release of a Cabinet report from 2011 which expressed grave doubts about the timetable to build the line and the likely costs. It’s trying to block publication using a prime ministerial veto last used to suppress information about the decision to go to war in Iraq. Gives you confidence does it not!

Anyone who believes that this scheme will come in at anywhere near the official estimate of cost will be unaware of the dire history of government investment schemes. The political game is to launch things seen as advantageous to government and attractive to voters – at first sight anyway – on the back of farcical claims about cost. The Institute of Economic Affairs suggests £80 billion for HS2. Monopoly money. A billion here, a billion there. Soon you are talking as though it’s all a game.

Once launched, the project becomes near irreversible or the entire expenditures are wasted if it‘s stopped. This is what actually happened to the NHS computerisation project. It was cancelled. But this is unusual. As a rule, the poor bloody taxpayer simply pays more and more for politicians’ vainglory. £12 billion plus in the case of the NHS scheme when it was halted.

The usual form is that projects also grossly overrun the time expected for completion. The Cabinet report suggested the usual. Tell us something new! We can all promise to eat our hats if we are around in 2026 and the trains are running to Birmingham.

So on cost and completion time we can place little confidence in Government.

But what of the claims about a transport ‘time bomb’ without new rail capacity as one Government minister claimed?

It transpires that peak time passenger arrivals at Euston fell last year by 10%. Morning peak trains are arriving only 64% full.

When objectors went to court about HS2, the Department of Transport said that had the figures for train use been released during the public consultation period they would have “added nothing to the debate” and “confused the public”. Hmmm.

But current passenger numbers may, of course, increase in future. This is where we enter the world of conjecture about technology. The official view is that the half hour knocked off journey times to Birmingham will save businessmen wasting it sitting on a train. But these days, with the web and laptops people are not simply sitting bored silly waiting to get off. This is not the world of 1838.

By 2026 – and when the full service further north is completed some years later – who knows what will be available in the way of communications making physical journey unnecessary. Video conferencing with holographic participants? What is certain is that travel eats up time and energy. Business will move to make huge savings in this direction. We don’t lug paper letters around the country much now. Much is done electronically.

It’s a good bet the same will apply to people. Now if the great visionaries addressed that as the investment project, well… But they’d only waste our money. They always do.